Photos of Beijing tea house scam

Back from a 4-day trip to Beijing. One of the highlights was losing over RMB1000 in a tea house scam, and getting it all back! I have posted the details of this on Lonely Planet's Thorn Tree forum to warn all travellers / tourists. You can read it at http://www.lonelyplanet.com/thorntree/thread.jspa?newPost=true&threadID=1899000

The photos are posted below:

In defence of books

A few days back, I went to the National Library and came back with four books. Four books to read in six weeks without paying a fine – quite a tall order given the demands of the workplace and other sources of entertainment that have left reading behind for most people. I, however, have always been an avid reader. And at times, voracious. It started at a young age, and I was fortunate to grow up among people and in an environment who considered reading one of the more desirable leisure activities. Be it fiction or non-fiction, I have had a soft corner for reading.

These are interesting times for books. With Apple launching its iPad – which can be a e-reader among other things – and Amazon already in the market with its e-reader Kindle, many feel books may lose their allure. But will they? Without getting into a discussion on technological features of online reading devices, let us examine if books will continue to be as important as they have been.

All of us are exposed to books at a very young age. As the world becomes more competitive – and more so in the developing world with Darwinian logic egging parents to make their children geniuses at a young age – I see several young minds continue to be initiated into the world of books. Access to technology has become more widespread, easier and cheaper over the last three decades, but to a vast majority of people the old-fashioned “hard copies” still matter more than electronic “soft copies”. It will take a couple of generations, if not longer, for people to become completely comfortable with reading, editing and storing masses of information entirely in electronic form. If you consider that impossible, think about the number of times you have taken print-outs of documents to read and mark up (either to revise or to remember) at work. Or for that matter, tried to print a view-only online piece, and be disappointed. In short, we are simply not comfortable reading anything longer than tens of pages online in a single sitting.

Then you have the issue of reach and the associated cost factor. It will require high broadband speeds in large parts of the world - which currently do not have electricity for 24 hours - for books to go out of fashion. And for each e-book to be priced competitively, publishers and hardware providers would require significant economies of scale. We are quite a long way off from those days. In all likelihood, we will be for many decades in a state where e-books and other “for sale” copyrighted online content will carve out a niche only for the most popular and timeless literary works, while for the vast majority of readers, the paper versions will rule.

Finally, you got the “soft” factor that may tilt the scales in favour of the “hard copy”. The level of comfort that people have with books in their current form is difficult to quantify, and easy to underestimate. If a book were a companion, the sense of touch associated with turning and feeling each page lends a personal flavour to every copy. The fresh smell of a new book, or the old but familiar smell of a dog-eared version of years left behind can evoke and nurture memories of familiar things, events and people. The warm feeling of being surrounded by books in a library, or the very act of curling up with a book on a rainy day is difficult to imagine being replicated soon with an e-reader. Books are here to stay for a long, long time.

In the eyes of a fourth idiot

Finally, I watched 3 Idiots. The movie has been creating history in India. And if you believe the marketing machine behind it, abroad as well. Of course that includes Singapore. In the Lion City, your choice in Hindi movie theatres boils down to one - the Jade theatre which has recently upgraded to improve its standing from "worst by a mile" to "worst by a few meters". Not that it deters the Bollywood faithful; in fact occasionally it manages to attract the less enthusiastic, but by no means uninterested, such as yours truly.

So one evening, having devoured a home-cooked dinner at a Subway cafe table, I found myself settling into the theatre seat. My wife was with me, ever ready to witness Bollywood history being made. What followed was an enjoyable 3-plus hours. Without getting into the oft-repeated story, I would just pen down my Top 5 take-aways.

1. Preaching through comedy works:

It is easy to be drawn into a pedantic discourse on rights and wrongs, and thereby bore the audience to death. But throw in comedy, and the audience becomes more receptive to the positive message that lies wrapped in the jokes, one-liners and funny situations. That's definitely a smarter and more effective way for the director / scriptwriter to appeal to an audience that is overwhelmingly made up of entertainment-seekers.

2. An unpredictable ending is not welcome in Hindi cinema, and an unhappy ending is even less so:

I believe this goes back to the concern with robbing the audience of "entertainment" by making the ending less than picture-perfect. And how can a perfect ending be sad, or even tinged with a dash of melancholy? So even after a roller-coaster ride along the road of good karma and bad, good luck and bad, all the key characters seem to somehow "manage" in the end, true to Indian character. It would have been interesting to see how the makers of 3 Idiots dealt with an ending where "Aal izz" not "well" for all the protagonists.

3. Melodrama well-packaged is still melodrama:

Even the best of films cannot risk not adding the customary dose of melodrama that has been the trademark of Bollywood movies, and indeed of any genre of so-called commercial Indian cinema. So even an Aamir Khan movie has to have an escape from a wedding that is just not destined to be, and a desperate attempt to melt the strongest hearts during a childbirth scene (it at least succeeds in melting the heart of the movie's most no-nonsense character). The saving grace is the comic treatment of poverty in one of the "idiots'" family - which strikes a perfect balance by lampooning the self-pity that many of us suffer from, at the same time not trivializing hardship.

4. You still need to appeal to the lowest common denominator, if only occasionally:

To appeal to the masses, even if they are the urban educated lot who throng the multiplexes, film-makers do not and cannot rely purely on wit, deadpan humour and puns. The film's desperate and repeated use of a character's malfunctioning digestive tract as a source to elicit laughter is a case in point. But then, I guess one cannot lose sight of the commercial success that the minds behind the movie had set their sights firmly on.

5. The target audience is wider than it appears:

At first glance, the movie is aimed at the 15-40 age group of middle-class and upper middle-class Indians who have grown up under direct or indirect pressure to perform in a highly competitive educational environment. That surely explains the stupendous success of the movie in urban India and also in the West where Indian-origin students have been seen queuing up outside theatres, braving the cold. I do suspect, however, that the big hit that the movie has reportedly become has resulted from capturing the imagination of other non-overlapping groups as well. These include parents, for whom it is one more reminder to let their children have a say in what they want to do in life; or school teachers and college professors, for whom it is a timely reminder to think beyond cramming-oriented, system-acing, exam-cracking variety of education. It is by appealing to this large universe of viewers that the movie has hit the bull's eye.

So is it a good movie? Definitely, and a very enjoyable one at that. Is it a great movie, deserving of an Oscar entry? No. But eminently watchable for some excellent performances including from the ever-reliable Aamir Khan, its funny moments and for dealing with a subject that most viewers, especially Indians, can identify with.

PS: Can anyone tell me why Mukesh Ambani has been thanked in the credits of a movie that is distributed by Reliance Big Pictures, owned by his dear brother Anil?

Ramblings of an ocassional insomniac

I am back writing this blog after two-and-a-half months. And it took me a bout of insomnia to get here. Fortunately I am unable to sleep only once a month on an average, so I am happy blaming it on the ocassional 5pm coffee or a bout of work-related hangover. And I am relieved it's not a Sunday night, or a Monday morning rather, when many of us dread the start of another week of work.

Not that it helps, however. Sleeplessness has been attributed to a number of reasons over the years, as life gets more hectic and stressful. Tension, pressure in personal and professional life, frequent long-distance travel as well as excessive exercise have been blamed for this. A recent story that has been in circulation relates to the death of Ranjan Das, who headed SAP's Indian operations, and by any measure was considered a healthy and active individual till he succumbed to a heart attack in late October. Successful, hard-working and a fitness freak with a marathon under his belt, Das is said to have survived on four hours of sleep a day. Not for long, sadly.

It is events such as these that make us stop and think at times. What is the right balance to strike between work and play and rest? How much is good-to-have, and how much is a must-have? Do our views of wants and needs change beyond recognition at times? If yes, what are the costs that we have to bear as a result? There are no easy answers, and the answer that seems right to me may not seem right to someone else. Like most things in life, it is up to us to draw our lines and set limits while resisting the temptation of benchmarking against all and sundry.

But let me leave that for some other. Not today, since the morning is not far away, and I need to rest to fight another day.

Matchday in Singapore

The British Premier League (BPL) has completed its first week of the 2009-10 season, with its fair share of shock results (Manchester United’s defeat to minnows Burnley) along with more predictable and widely predicted ones (Manchester United’s thrashing of Wigan) and “I told you so” results (Liverpool’s defeat to Tottenham). The BPL is one of the most widely-watched annual sporting events under the sun, with fans from Birmingham to Bangkok.

And of course, Singapore. By far the most popular sport in this part of the world, Singapore’s low ranking in the FIFA list (just like India’s) and limited support and passion around domestic football (definitely less than some parts of India) has spawned a number of fan clubs for ManU, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and maybe others. This has not escaped the highly commercial minds that run most of the large football clubs these days. Which means every year there is at least one major club that gets its footballers to fly halfway across the world to play a “pre-season friendly” in Singapore, with a bumboat ride on the Singapore river and sampling the local cuisine thrown in.

This year the club happened to be Liverpool, which is my favourite team in the BPL. Now don’t ask me why an Indian guy living in Singapore supports Liverpool, which has no player in its squad that calls any place east of Ukraine home. Maybe I will write about it some day. But suffice to say I am not alone. And of course, I am not in the die-hard category, the type whose photos you see in The Straits Times – proudly displaying a mini-encyclopedia of the club in the form of tattooes.

Photo source: www.flickr.com

A few weeks before the game, I managed to get tickets from the offices of Strategic Sports Investment. SSI is a division of The Profitable Group, a British-owned and British-managed business with interests in sports, real estate and everything in between – basically, anything where there is profit to be made by overcharging unsuspecting Asians. Singapore began gearing up for the game well in advance, and I was not surprised to see the Adidas outlet at Suntec City mall doing a brisk sale of the club’s new black “away” jerseys. So much so, they gave me a poster of Steven Gerrard along with my purchase of a rather tame pair of sandals.

There was no Gerrard in the team that came to Singapore, though, with the talismanic captain busy defending himself against charges of beating up a fellow patron at a pub some time back in his homeland. He escaped without any punishment, though the judge, and the sporting world, could see footage from closed-circuit television that clearly showed him punching away in satisfaction. But let me not digress. The team that came had all the other big names – Fernando Torres, Jamie Carragher, Pepe Reina, Javier Mascherano, Dirk Kuyt and the want-away but wildly popular Xabi Alonso.

So one hot and humid late afternoon in July (which is not saying much, since Singapore is hot and humid for at least 11 hours a day all year round) I found myself on the stands at the Singapore National Stadium – a ten-minute walk from my condo. For company, I had my wife, who came “for the atmosphere”, and two friends decked up in Liverpool jerseys, ever ready for an argument on which player was worse – Lucas or Voronin. By the time the game started, there were more than 40,000 in the stadium, including Singapore President S.R. Nathan. Going by the crowd reception, he was no match in terms of popularity for Rafa Benitez, Liverpool’s headstrong but astute manager of more than five years.

As I said earlier, the main objective behind the pre-season tours is to ensure that merchandise gets sold and television audiences continue to swell in Asia. For the players, this is a good opportunity to get back to match fitness, readying for the grueling season ahead after a month or two of beach holidays. At the same time, avoiding injury is high on the agenda. Also, it is the youngsters and the fringe players who are usually more enthusiastic about impressing the manager. No surprise, then, that we had the usual sprinkling of Dominguezes and Deggens who do not even figure in the 16-member team in a BPL match. The game had its moments in the first half, but it took a deflected goal from the much-maligned Voronin just before the break to rouse the crowd.

Speaking of the crowd, they had two reasons to be at the stadium that evening, apart from of course watching the game. First, was to be seen as much to see. So you had a sprinkling of weird hair-dos and groups holding placards pleading with Xabi Alonso to stay with the club (Xabi joined Real Madrid a few days thereafter, so the plea didn’t work). We also got to see middle-aged ladies in headscarves wearing Torres’s No. 9 shirt and waving a large cut-out of the absent Gerrard. Secondly, there were some who came just to have a good time. There were two girls sitting behind us who spent the entire time singing the team and player-specific songs, which they knew by heart. While in such a setting I didn’t mind the assault on my eardrums, I couldn’t help wondering how much of the game they managed to watch in between their singing.

The game itself, by the way, did liven up in the second half as the temperature dropped a celcius or two lower. The bigger stars came on, and you could see in Dirk Kuyt’s endless running and drive that for the blond Dutchman, it doesn’t matter who he is playing against. To him, all games have to be attacked with the same level of energy and enthusiasm. That, along with the distinct difference in quality that the introduction of Torres, Alonso and Riera brought along, resulted in Liverpool drilling in a handful of goals past the hapless Singapore keeper.

We got our money’s worth, the players got their practice and surely the organizers made some profit.

We didn’t stay till the end of the evening, but if the standing ovation that I saw on TV the Liverpool players getting during the victory lap was any indication, they must have gone home with happy memories from this corner of the world. And surely, the club’s debt-laden American owners, if they cared to watch, would have got a reassurance that the franchise they had bought into was truly global.

On the road to Bandung

In spite of several business trips in South East Asia over the last three years, my last trip was one I was especially looking forward to. Because it was different. Rarely does one get an opportunity to travel on road to smaller cities while travelling on work, and my meeting in Bandung promised exactly that.

Well, Bandung is not exactly a small city, with more than 2 million people. In Dutch times, it was the seat of the government. But today, especially from a commercial or business point of view, it is way behind Jakarta. Some of us also remember Bandung from the Nehru-inspired school books in India, where Bandung is mentioned as the city hosting the eponymous Bandung Conference for Asian and African countries in 1955.

The Jakarta-Bandung highway is a six-lane toll road, with some stetches of four lanes as well. Not of the same standard of finishing and beautification that one gets to see in Singapore or Hong Kong, or the western countries for that matter, but a nice stretch of no-nonsense tarmac. Our driver started at a comfortable 60 to 90 km / hour, depending on whether it was an unruly large truck or a small zippy car ahead of us. Though it is a toll road, one could see an odd urchin or a lazy villager whiling away time sitting on the divider. And the relatively large number of vehicles overtaking from the wrong side did throw a bit of nostalgia for India in the mix.

With its democratic political system, large young population and tolerant society which has had its shares of sectarian violence, some observers have hailed Indonesia as the "next India". A recent publication talks about how we should think of adding another "I" to BRICs, the term used to describe the large emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. And I think there is an element of truth in both observations.

Indonesia is going through an eventful period politically. After the parliamentary elections in April, the presidential elections are due in July. Along the highway, one cannot miss the large blue flags proclaiming "SBY - Bodieono" . The centrist, clean image of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono makes the incumbent president the odds-on favourite to win. Even though his choice for Vice President - central bank Governor Bodieono - is a political lightweight. Some say SBY, as Yudhoyono is popularly known, made it a point to ensure his VP would be from a non-political background, after his uneasy relationship with incumbent Jusuf Kalla of Golkar Party. It is a healthy multi-party democracy, though, as I could see a shining black car ahead displaying a bumper-sticker with SBY's rival Megawati and her running mate waving at us.

But back to the highway. With traffic thinning as we long left the Jakarta suburbs behind, our driver had sped up to 120 km / hour. And it cetainly helped that the trucks for once were sticking to the left lane. However, the highway to Bandung passes through a landscape of low hills, and with quite a few gentle curves in the road, Pak Tono decided to settle on 100 as the ideal speed.

Outside Jakarta, rice paddy seemed to be the most popular crop. The bright green of the fields, interspersed with the red and white houses, were not very different from what you would see in many parts of India. As we drove through the rolling hills, this gave way to small patches of tea gardens. The banana and coconut trees, however, were omnipresent throughout the route, due to some quirk of botany that cannot be explained by my untrained mind.

Close to two hours after we started, billboards advertising hotels show up as the first signs that we were approaching Bandung. From The Majesty to The Novotel, all of them were predictably promising a comfortable stay. Apparently, the low to mid-20s temperature of the city makes it a weekend retreat of choice for those sapped by the heat and humidity of the capital. The other favourite message of the billboards seemed to be advertisements for apparel factory outlets, a tourists' favourite given that the Bandung area is the centre of Indonesia's textile industry. Very soon, narrower roads and slower traffic signalled that we had entered city limits. The client's office was not far away.

We returned soon after the meeting, so I did not get a chance to explore the city. All I can say is that the Dunkin Donuts outlet nearby serves a decent cup of coffee. For more of Bandung, I have to return some day.

Young MPs in India - beyond the euphoria

The Indian elections have been in the news globally for a number of reasons - from the way more than 400 million people voted over a month, to the impact the results had on the Indian stock market on that Manic Monday - May 18. So before the topic goes stale, I must jot down a few lines related to this epic event in the history of
democracy.

Let me focus on one of the most-discussed themes of these elections - the so-called emergence and prominence of the youth. This has primarly centred on two issues; firstly, that there is greater representation of the youth among the elected legislators, and secondly, that this election has seen greater participation by young voters. I will dwell on the first.

The issue has been in the limelight since Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family, took an active and leading role in campaigning for the Congress Party. As every commentator has mentioned, the result of the election has been influenced to a significant extent by Rahul Gandhi's winning back large chunks of
India's largest state Uttar Pradesh for his party. No less significant has been the contribution of his cousin - Varun Gandhi - who managed to diminish whatever chance his party (BJP, the key and only national rival of the Congress) had by his hateful speeches insulting the Muslim community. So youth did have a role to play if pure impact is anything to go by.

Around 12% of the legislators in the new Parliament are what can be called "young" in Indian politics - below 40. Let us look at the young MPs who have been in the news. What is common to Mausam Noor, Nilesh Rane, Supriya Sule, Agatha Sangma and Hamidullah Sayeed? They are all relatives, in most cases sons or daughters, of established politicians. Along with their more well-known and visible counterparts Jyotiraditya Scindia, Milind Deora or Sachin Pilot, for that matter. Indeed, the young MPs without a political connection in the family are in a minority. And like Kerala MPs P.K. Biju and M.B. Rajesh, they are mostly from the Left Front - the Communist-led coalition - with a background in student politics.

So is this emergence of young politicians as great a news as it is made out to be by the mainstream media and television anchors with verbal diarrhoea? Surely not. It is indeed unfortunate that the old Indian bane of "connetions" and "all in the family" has been so prominent where it can have the maximum influence. Not very different from large swathes of Indian business, where untested and often unworthy offspring get a fast-track to the corner office. And more experienced and more accomplished lesser mortals have to clear the way for the crown princes and princeses.

But there is a silver lining. Most of these young MPs are well educated, often in the best institutions in India and abroad. Some of them are well-travelled globally, and therefore have a broader perspective that is no doubt only further broadened when they hit the dusty village roads in sweltering heat to ask for votes. They have spent most of their adult life seeing India open up to the world, and starting the slow but sure journey to a more meritocratic society where equal opportunity for all, no matter what the background, is the ultimate goal. So maybe they can be the catalyst of change that Indian politics sorely needs. For all his experience, expertise and statesmanship, Dr Manmohan Singh is not in the best physical health to lead the country for long. And neither would be L.K. Advani, his prime ministerial rival in this election.

Drawing a parallel from Indian business, we can look at Wipro, where Azim Premji inherited a consumer business by virtue of being born into the right family. But he used the opportunity to transform the company into a leader in IT services. Not as romantic as the first generation entrepreneurs at Infosys, but a terrific achievement nevertheless. India's young MPs from privileged backgrounds have had a relatively easier, and surely shorter, route to Parliament House. What they do now will determine how they will be remembered.

India will be watching.

The Singapore cabbie in his many avatars

Taxis were never my favourite in India. I always found them stuffy and overpriced compared to their lighter but more nimble cousins - the auto-rickshaws. While the ancient Ambassadors of Kolkata gave you more space than the claustrophobic Fiats of Mumbai, the smell of fuel mixed with the grime of these huge cities didn't make for a pleasurable ride in either.


Photo source: Wikimedia Commons

Singapore taxis are, of course, much more comfortable - though they are not cheap by any standards, especially in peak hours with the plethora of surcharges slapped on. What makes a taxi ride in Singapore entertaining, though, is the readiness with which most drivers engage in small talk. On many occasions, this rapidly develops into either a teach-in session on life in Singapore, or a discourse on any number of topics under the sun. Following are some snippets:

Avatar 1. The cabbie as the ambassador for Singapore

It was our recce trip to Singapore a month before moving here. The purpose - looking around the city, with a bit of house-hunting thrown in. And I suppose our words and actions made the above very clear; at least, clear enough for our cabby friends. So each of the four taxi rides that weekend, the cabbied gladly announced: "Singapore is a multi-racial country". It was as if they had taken on the mantle of ambassadors of the city-state (and from my experience I can vouch they were indeed right). And of course, we did get quotes which ranged from the stereotypical - "Most Indians are IT preofessionals" - to the accusatory - "Indians come and take our jobs"

Avatar 2. The cabbie as the gourmand

It is a typically sultry afternoon, but we are tempted to hop on to a taxi and get a taste of Indian food in Little India. Our cabbie is smart enough to put two and two together, and launches into what can qualify as a "2iminute guide to Indian cuisine". Not only does he offer tips on Indian restaurants in Singapore, but also explains the difference in "roti prata" (the Malay/Singaporean dish that comes closest to Indian bread) as preferred by North Indians vis-a-vis that prefereed by South Indians. I gather he was explaining the difference between the naan/chapati family of breads from the North and the dosa/appam family from the South.

Avatar 3. The cabbie as the Hindi song buff

Yet another taxi ride, and we are pleasantly surprised by a Kishore Kumar number from a good forty years back playing. After exchanging surprised glances, my wife enthusiastically enquires if it is some radio station that the driver is listening to. "No" - pat come the answer. Our good friend is playing a CD of Hindi songs. Now that was a big surprise! And no, he doesn't understand Hindi, but he does understand the "mood" of the song. It was "Happy listening" for the rest of the journey through the weekend traffic.

Avatar 4. The cabbie as the financial journalist

A late night at work, and it is a sleepy and tired yours truly that embarks on the 10-minute ride home. But I am intrigued by the driver's knowledge of the financial markets. After expressing his surprise at my working late even though I don't cover the European markets, he launches into a little speech on the right hours for work depending whether you cover New Zealand or Iceland. I find that he keeps himself abreast of the latest financial news - proven by a short commentary on the UK banks' results announced that week. He also shared with me his theory of how his passenger volumes are correlated with the stock market, and the latest on which bank is laying off employees in Singapore. It was only because we reached my condo that I was deprived of more nuggets of information and analysis.

I am told that many taxi drivers in Singapore are retired from government or private sector jobs and look at this vocation as a source of steady income. And after paying the rental to the taxi company and buying the fuel, there is a decent amount of profit to take home. So the cabbie in Singapore need not be from the poorest section of society, as in many other places. The recession is starting to bite, though. On another late night ride back home, a cabbie bitterly complained that with passengers using buses and the MRT more and more, and many expats leaving the city-state, earnings have dropped. Even working 18-hour days is not proving to be enough. The good news is that he still has his sense of humour intact, and is ever ready to engage in small talk to lighten up your day.

PS: The rumour mill has it that some taxi drivers are "informers" for the Singapore government. It is unlikely we will ever know for sure if they are. But how does it matter, as long as they keep you entertained?

Dusk

Photo source: Author

Dusk, they say, is the hour of the defeated. As the sun dips below the horizon, and nature signals a transition from day to night, there is at times a lingering sadness that seems to float in the air. Some distant dream that is not yet achieved, some faraway destination that has not been reached -the relative quiet of dusk does raise troubling questions in our minds after the hectic activities of the day cease to be a diversion.

City life makes us oblivious to the change in the diurnal motion of the earth. Most of us work in offices lit up by electricity, while the same electricity powers our televisions that provide evening entertainment, and can convert a sports stadium to day-like luminance, making a small white ball as visible to us as in the mid-day sun. Somewhere, someday we seem to have lost touch with how nature wanted us to live.

It was, therefore, with quite a bit of interest that I took a short walk around this time on a rare weekday that I was home before dark. From the quiet promenade along the Kallang river, it was indeed remarkable to see and hear the sights and sounds of day give way to those of the night. As the sky turned from a palette of orange and purple to first a light, and then darker, shade of grey, street lights and home lighting seemed to gradually glow bright one by one. The odd chirp of a bird or two slowly gave way to the low, monotonous drone of insects. Far away, you could hear the sigh of relief from homebound traffic, eager to return to something or someone that waits at home. A few walkers and joggers passed me - for some, a necessary diversion from home or office, and for some others maybe a hurried attempt to check the "exercise" box for the day.

I was convinced dusk was not only a hour for the defeated - it was an hour for contemplation. It is the time when a small chapter in our lives comes to a close; every day, day after day. It gives us a chance to pause and ponder over what we have done, and which direction we have been travelling. How far are our goals, and how many dusks will it take to reach there. Or is there any goal? Should there be one? Is it not an amazing experience to just get a chance to marvel at nature's beauty, and quietly rejoice at how mankind has harnessed nature's gifts?

And I realized that dusk is as much a hour of hope and forgiveness. This is the time when you can see how the same sky can be as dark in the east as it can be softly bright in the west. And there is no boundary where day meets night. Nature seems to be telling us not to get blinded by the light of day or misled by the darkness of night. Because life, just like the sky at dusk, is a melange of black and white and everything else in between. Each of us, in every way, is like the sky at dusk - a mix of different traits and qualities. It is up to us to decide how we want to travel from darkness to light. Or for that matter, choose that little spot in the middle where we are comfortable. Sooner or later, we all will certainly get our place in the sun. Equally certainly, there will be times when the darkness will seem to be all-encompassing. But as long we do not forget the sky at dusk, there will be colour in our lives.

Harmless stimulants for the non-adventurous type

“Chocolate, men, coffee – some things are better rich” ~ Author Unknown

While men – rich or poor – are best left to women to discuss, it is worth spending a bit of time on coffee and chocolates, though the latter is arguably a domain for women as well. And with stimulants and performance boosters in the news again this year (thanks to Michael Phelps and Alex Rodriguez), it is perhaps time to look at a couple of items at the “harmless” end of the spectrum.

Part 1: Musings on coffee, and how Captain Ahab’s first mate is changing the world

In spite of growing up in a typical eastern Indian home where at least two cups of tea a day – with generous amounts of milk and sugar is de rigueur – I never took a great liking for tea. Coffee was an occasional luxury at best, and maybe that is why held a greater attraction for me. But it was only with the exposure to the hard-driving, energetic workplace at the banks I have worked in, and the necessity to be alert and enthusiastic in spite of myself, that I realized the true magic of coffee. No less was the influence of the rapidly growing culture of coffee shops in India in the last ten years.

By any standard, I am not a heavy coffee drinker. In fact, my average consumption of 2 – 4 cups a week will qualify as moderate in any consumer survey of my peer group. However, I cannot deny the instant, if short-lived, impact it has on me. Now there can be a discussion on whether coffee is good or bad, or how much of coffee is just about the right amount to drink. But keeping that aside for a moment, the uses of coffee are quite diverse:
• Wake-me-up coffee: After a long night, to get ready for a new day. Needs to be strong enough to give a jolt to your senses. And yes, the aroma matters
• “Timepass” coffee: For those of you not familiar with Indian English, this is just an excuse to catch up with a friend in a lazy afternoon, or to just kill time at the office water cooler
• Anything-but-coffee: When this is just a ruse to meet someone, where coffee is just an excuse for conversation (In fact, Singapore has a coffee shop chain called Coffee & Conversation). And in this camp we find an interesting mix of players, looking for a wide range of professional and personal alliances and deals.



Photo source: www.freefoto.com

Given the supposedly robust nature of the business, you would imagine that the Starbucks’ of the world would do a steady business and not be affected by the ups and downs of the economy. Going through their corporate disclosures, I found that revenues grew from US$1.3bn in FY1998 to US$10.4bn in FY2008 (the company’s fiscal year ends in September), a whopping eight-fold growth in ten years. Year-on-year quarterly growth (e.g. 2008 Q3 compared to 2007 Q3), which is a good indicator of regular growth adjusted for seasonality, was positive for each of the quarters, every year since 1993 when they started disclosing this information after going public. Now this is as much a result of their continuous global expansion as it is of the growing strength of the brand and coffee-drinking as a habit. However one exception – Q1 2009 ending December 2008 – when year-on-year revenues dipped 6%, probably shows that they are not immune to the macro environment. Delving one level deeper, when you look at “comparable store sales” (which strips out the effect of opening of new stores), the impact of the downturn is more visible. Revenues were flat in 2008 compared to 2007, while the last time it shrunk – by 1% - was in 2002. Remember the aftermath of the bursting of the dotcom bubble?

And what about profitability? After growing every year for five years, earnings per share (EPS) dropped in FY2008 to 71 cents. Research analysts at stock brokerages expect a further dip in FY2009 to 68 cents, before recovering in the subsequent years. Sounds unexpectedly coupled to the global economy, does it not?

The Starbucks stock has also moved in the same broad direction as the market in the last few years, though both outperformance and underperformance has been significant.

Chart source: www.starbucks.com

So are people happier than ever in the middle of the recession and don’t need coffee to perk them up?

Certainly not. Starbucks is as much about marketing and supply chain management (think new-sounding products and cheap sourcing) and portfolio management (think opening new stores at the right time, and shutting loss-making ones, as well juggling the right mix of coffee and non-coffee offerings, including merchandise) as it is about coffee. Paying as much for a cup of Starbucks coffee as a decent lunch in a Singapore food court is not everyone’s idea of how money well-spent. And if you really crave for the brew, why not make yourself one at home or get your free cuppa at the office coffee machine?

Clearly, the business of coffee is as interesting and absorbing as business over coffee. Maybe the Starbucks website says it all – “It’s bigger than coffee”.

P.S: the world’s most famous coffee chain got its name from Captain Ahab’s first mate in Moby Dick – Starbuck

Part 2: Bitter water from Mexico, and hoardings at Patel Bridge

If you have travelled along Marine Drive in South Mumbai on your way to work, or frequented the nearby Chowpatty Beach, you cannot have missed Patel Bridge. An otherwise nondescript structure, Patel Bridge has probably the two most coveted advertising hoardings aimed at people connected with finance and investments. And it is, in a way, the barometer of the Indian economy in general, and financial markets in particular. At any point in time in the last four or five years, Patel Bridge has hosted at least one advertisement that sells a financial product, especially new initial public offerings (IPOs) from companies.

It was, therefore, no great surprise last December as my taxi approached Patel Bridge, a large advert for Tata Capital – the Tata Group’s new improved financial services foray –caught my attention. Turning back after five minutes, however, I noticed the other advert – for Cadbury’s new brand of chocolates Bournville.

Now that was interesting. But maybe not unexpected. Financial markets were down in the dumps, so what else to keep the citizens of India’s financial capital in the right mood than the first offering in India of “fine, dark chocolate” from Cadbury’s?
It has been a long and victorious march across the globe for what the Aztecs and Mayas in Mexico associated with the goddesses of fertility. The word “chocolate” is derived from the words xocolli (“bitter”) and atl (“water”) in the Nahuatl language spoken by the Aztecs. Cultivation of cocoa beans in Central and South America led to drinking of chocolate. It was only in the 1700s, however, that solid chocolate was first manufactured, and that has since been the primary form of consumption across the world.

Fans of chocolate tout its benefits to the circulatory system, and its stimulating effect is often romanticized, especially by women, as nothing less than a morale booster. Detractors point to its high fat content, and chances of over-consumption resulting in obesity and even poisoning from its lead content. However, it remains one of the most loved food items, and is an all-time favourite as a gift item that you can rarely go wrong with.

It is interesting to note that prices moved lockstep with the mood in the global economy for the better part of the last seven months. Retail prices of chocolate do not, of course, fluctuate wildly; so we look at the iPath Dow Jones – AIG Cocoa Index, which in simple words is a measure of the expectation of cocoa prices at any given point in time. Also, given the impact that the upheaval in the financial markets has had on the public at large, the state of the market and the economy may be used as a proxy for the mood of the masses.


Chart source: Bloomberg

Note the spike in cocoa prices in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy (September 15, 2008) and the immediate fear that gripped the financial world. In October, however, governments across the Western world injected capital into the financial system, and coordinated intervention raised hopes of a recovery – note the plunge in cocoa prices. Late into the fourth quarter of 2008, the world realized this may not be enough, and cocoa prices go up. As we enter 2009, the early-January bounce in stock markets again brings the Index down. In short, bad news make you run to the fridge for a bite of chocolate to convince yourself that this is not the end of the world, after all. Conversely, good news reduces the need for another bite.

However, correlation does not necessarily imply causation, and I am certain there are other factors related to the weather, global trade and technical factors in the global commodities markets that have resulted in this seemingly high connectedness. In addition, the recent rally in the global stock markets in late March, and accompanying positive macro-economic news, has not had a meaningful impact on cocoa prices.

For believers in the potency of chocolate, however, this could just be the sign of the times, to be ignored at your own peril!